Abstract:

Given the increasing global tension between resource supply and demand, analyzing the consumption patterns and driving mechanisms of African countries, as a crucial part of global resource consumption, holds profound significance for optimizing global resource allocation and supporting the sustainable development goals in Africa. This study employs club convergence theory to systematically identify the convergence characteristics of resource consumption across 50 African countries from 1990 to 2022. Additionally, the STIRPAT model is utilized to comprehensively evaluate the complex impacts of multiple factors, including population dynamics, economic conditions, and technological advancements, on resource consumption patterns. The findings reveal that: ①Resource consumption in African countries exhibits significant heterogeneity, forming three convergence clubs and one divergent group, highlighting diverse consumption patterns. ②Specifically, Club 1 is characterized by a "high consumption-low efficiency" pattern, urgently requiring strengthened resource management and environmental protection measures. Club 2 follows a "moderate consumption-volatility" pattern, emphasizing the need for both economic policy stability and improved resource use efficiency. Club 3 represents a "low consumption-high efficiency" pattern, facing challenges in optimizing resource management strategies to achieve higher levels of sustainable development. ③The STIRPAT model further demonstrates that population growth, economic expansion, and increased industrial output are the main drivers of rising resource consumption in Africa, while technological progress serves as a crucial mitigating factor, effectively slowing the pace of resource depletion. This study provides a theoretical foundation for tailored resource management strategies for African countries and offers specific policy recommendations based on the characteristics of each club.

Key words: resource consumption patterns, club convergence, driving factors, STIRPAT model, Africa

摘要：

在全球资源供需矛盾日益加剧的背景下，非洲国家作为资源消费的重要一环，深入分析其消费模式与驱动机制对于促进全球资源合理配置、助力非洲地区实现可持续发展目标具有深远意义。本研究基于1990—2022年非洲50个国家的资源消费数据，运用俱乐部收敛理论对非洲资源消费的收敛特性进行了系统识别，并结合STIRPAT模型，综合考量人口动态、经济状况、技术进步等多重因素对资源消费模式的复杂影响。研究发现：①非洲国家资源消费展现出显著的异质性，并形成三个收敛俱乐部与一个发散组，揭示了多样化的消费模式。②具体而言，俱乐部1呈现“高消费-低效率”特征，亟须强化资源管理与环境保护措施；俱乐部2呈现“中等消费-波动性”模式，强调经济政策稳定性与资源利用效率的双重提升；俱乐部3属于“低消费-高效率”类型，说明其面临优化资源管理策略以促进更高层次可持续发展的挑战。③STIRPAT模型进一步解析显示，人口增长、经济扩张及工业产出增加是推动非洲资源消费上升的关键驱动力，而技术进步则作为重要的制动因素，有效减缓了资源消耗速度。研究不仅为非洲国家量身定制差异化的资源管理策略提供了坚实的理论支撑，还针对各俱乐部特点，提出了具体的政策建议，旨在促进资源利用效率的提升，以加快非洲地区向可持续未来的转型步伐。

关键词: 资源消费模式, 俱乐部收敛, 驱动因素, STIRPAT模型, 非洲地区