中国水资源利用效率与生态韧性的协调度及动力因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.02.20230240

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

明晰中国水资源利用效率与生态韧性的协调关系，是对新时代生态文明建设以及人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化的积极响应。以中国大陆30个省（市、区）为研究对象，运用协调度模型、核密度估计、GIS空间分析和空间马尔可夫链等方法，对2008—2020年我国水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度的时序演变、空间分布及状态转移趋势进行全面分析，并引入空间滞后Tobit模型探究其动力因素。结果表明：①水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度整体呈持续增长态势，但区域间的绝对差异有所扩大，空间上呈现“东-中-西”梯度递减格局，高值区集聚在东部沿海地区。②水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度的状态转移存在俱乐部收敛特征；中高及高水平地区趋同效应更为明显；当邻地协调度高于本地时，正向空间溢出效应得以发挥，随着邻地协调度提升，溢出效应更为突出。③内源动力是我国水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度提升的主要动力，政府动力和外向动力之间存在开发不充分的问题；各地区动力因素存在异质性，东、西部地区内源动力占据主导，而政府动力与外向动力在中部地区则显著促进了协调度的提升。

关键词: 水资源利用效率, 生态韧性, 协调度, 时空演变, 动力因素

Abstract:

Clarifying the coordination relationship between water resources utilization efficiency and ecological resilience in China is a positive response to the construction of ecological civilization in the new era and the Chinese modernization featuring harmonious coexistence between man and nature. This paper took 30 provinces (municipalities and districts) in mainland China as the research object, used the coordination degree model, kernel density estimation, GIS spatial analysis,and spatial Markov chain to comprehensively analyze the temporal evolution, spatial distribution,and state transition trends of coordination degree between water resources utilization efficiency and ecological resilience in China from 2008 to 2020, as well as introduced the spatial lag Tobit model to explore the driving factors. The results show that: (1) From the perspective of temporal evolution, the coordination degree presents continuous growth trend, but the absolute difference between regions expands. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the coordination degree presents a gradient descending pattern of "east-central-west", and the high-value area is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal area. (2) The state transfer of coordination degree has club convergence characteristics, and the convergence effect is more obvious in the middle-level and high-level areas. When the coordination degree of neighbors is higher than that of the local area, the positive spatial spillover effect can play a role, and the spillover effect becomes more prominent with improving coordination degree of neighbors. (3) Endogenous power is the main driving force for the improvement of coordination degree in our country, while government power and exogenous power have the problem of insufficient development. There is heterogeneity in the driving factors across regions, with endogenous power dominating in the east and west, while government power and exogenous power significantly contribute to the improvement of coordination in the central region.

Key words: water resources utilization efficiency, ecological resilience, coordination degree, spatial-temporal evolution, driving forces

张明斗, 任衍婷, 刘耀彬. 中国水资源利用效率与生态韧性的协调度及动力因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(2): 168-180.

Mingdou ZHANG, Yanting REN, Yaobin LIU. Coordination degree and driving factors of water resources utilization efficiency and ecological resilience in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(2): 168-180.

图/表 8

图1 水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调机理框架

Fig.1 Framework of the coordination mechanism between water resource utilization efficiency and ecological resilience

表1 生态韧性评价指标体系

Tab.1 Evaluation index system of ecological resilience

目标层	准则层	指标层	指标含义	符号	权重
生态韧性	压力	单位GDP工业二氧化硫排放量/（t/万元）	废气排放强度	—	0.033
		单位GDP综合能耗/（t标准煤/万元）	能源消耗强度	—	0.077
		单位GDP建设用地占用面积/（km²/万元）	地区地耗强度	—	0.052
	状态	人均公园绿地面积/m²	生态宜居空间	+	0.188
	状态	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	地区绿化水平	+	0.089
	响应	工业固体废物综合利用率/%	废物综合利用	+	0.211
		污水处理厂集中处理率/%	环境治理响应	+	0.082
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	人居环境改善	+	0.072
		环保支出占财政支出比重/%	环保投入强度	+	0.196

表2 协调度等级标准

Tab.2 Coordination degree grade standard

协调度	协调等级	协调区间
[0.0, 0.1]	极度失调	不可接受区间
(0.1, 0.2]	严重失调
(0.2, 0.3]	中度失调
(0.3, 0.4]	轻度失调
(0.4, 0.5]	濒临失调	勉强接受区间
(0.5, 0.6]	勉强协调	勉强接受区间
(0.6, 0.7]	初级协调	可接受区间
(0.7, 0.8]	中级协调
(0.8, 0.9]	良好协调
(0.9, 1.0]	优质协调

图2 协调度的核密度估计分布

Fig.2 Kernel density estimation distribution of coordination degree

图3 协调度的空间分布注：该图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2023）2762号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig.3 Spatial distribution pattern of coordination degree

表3 协调度的空间马尔可夫转移概率矩阵

Tab.3 Spatial Markov transfer probability matrix of coordination degree

滞后类型	t/t+1	低	中低	中高	高
无	低	0.735	0.265	0.000	0.000
	中低	0.000	0.729	0.271	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.000	0.773	0.227
	高	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
低	低	0.809	0.191	0.000	0.000
	中低	0.000	0.923	0.077	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000
	高	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
中低	低	0.593	0.407	0.000	0.000
	中低	0.000	0.739	0.261	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.000	0.810	0.190
	高	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
中高	低	0.333	0.667	0.000	0.000
	中低	0.000	0.676	0.324	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.000	0.792	0.208
	高	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
高	低	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
	中低	0.000	0.333	0.667	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.000	0.625	0.375
	高	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

表4 协调度的动力因素设定

Tab.4 Driving forces setting of coordination degree

动力类型	变量名称	变量符号	变量说明	VIF
内源动力	经济发展水平	ECO	人均GDP取对数	3.28
	技术创新水平	TEC	规模以上工业企业R&D经费支出取对数	2.02
	产业结构升级水平	IND	第三产业增加值/第二产业增加值	2.96
政府动力	政府干预水平	GOV	政府农林水务支出/一般预算支出	2.73
外向动力	对外开放水平	OPEN	进出口额/GDP	2.86

表5 协调度的动力因素回归结果

Tab.5 Regression results of driving forces of coordination degree

ECO

0.083^***

(6.190)

0.095^***

(7.660)

0.193^***

(19.890)

0.161^***

(21.280)

0.164^***

(10.380)

0.160^***

(10.020)

0.129^***

(14.500)

TEC

0.028^***

(5.020)

0.024^***

(5.380)

0.026^***

(4.820)

0.017^***

(5.310)

0.011^**

(2.420)

0.056^***

(6.560)

0.026^***

(5.650)

IND

－0.002

(－0.240)

0.009

(1.580)

0.031^***

(4.980)

0.041^***

(9.130)

0.032^***

(4.920)

0.019

(1.280)

0.128^***

(8.810)

GOV

－0.102

(－1.380)

－0.143^*

(－1.930)

－0.188^**

(－2.200)

－0.158

(－1.410)

－0.960^***

(－3.850)

0.684^***

(3.500)

－0.305^**

(－2.110)

OPEN

－0.040^***

(－3.220)

－0.026^**

(－2.360)

－0.062^***

(－4.950)

－0.050^***

(－3.820)

－0.117^***

(－6.290)

0.247^***

(3.170)

0.001

(0.020)

_CONS

－1.013^***

(－12.180)

－1.804^***

(－41.970)

－1.372^***

(－22.560)

－1.190^***

(－8.040)

－1.985^***

(－17.650)

－1.268^***

(－18.700)

ρ

0.501^***

(10.700)

0.453^***

(10.540)

0.011^***

(4.030)

0.005

(0.720)

0.027^***

(－4.030)

0.023^***

(5.300)

R²

Adj-R²

表5 协调度的动力因素回归结果

Tab.5 Regression results of driving forces of coordination degree

变量

（1）

（2）

（3）

（4）

（5）

（6）

（7）

固定效应空间滞后模型

随机效应空间滞后模型

Tobit模型

空间滞后Tobit模型

东部

中部

西部

ECO

0.083^***

(6.190)

0.095^***

(7.660)

0.193^***

(19.890)

0.161^***

(21.280)

0.164^***

(10.380)

0.160^***

(10.020)

0.129^***

(14.500)

TEC

0.028^***

(5.020)

0.024^***

(5.380)

0.026^***

(4.820)

0.017^***

(5.310)

0.011^**

(2.420)

0.056^***

(6.560)

0.026^***

(5.650)

IND

－0.002

(－0.240)

0.009

(1.580)

0.031^***

(4.980)

0.041^***

(9.130)

0.032^***

(4.920)

0.019

(1.280)

0.128^***

(8.810)

GOV

－0.102

(－1.380)

－0.143^*

(－1.930)

－0.188^**

(－2.200)

－0.158

(－1.410)

－0.960^***

(－3.850)

0.684^***

(3.500)

－0.305^**

(－2.110)

OPEN

－0.040^***

(－3.220)

－0.026^**

(－2.360)

－0.062^***

(－4.950)

－0.050^***

(－3.820)

－0.117^***

(－6.290)

0.247^***

(3.170)

0.001

(0.020)

_CONS

－1.013^***

(－12.180)

－1.804^***

(－41.970)

－1.372^***

(－22.560)

－1.190^***

(－8.040)

－1.985^***

(－17.650)

－1.268^***

(－18.700)

ρ

0.501^***

(10.700)

0.453^***

(10.540)

0.011^***

(4.030)

0.005

(0.720)

0.027^***

(－4.030)

0.023^***

(5.300)

R²

0.951

0.954

0.963

0.943

0.961

0.949

Adj-R²

0.959

0.936

0.955

0.943

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