Abstract:

Based on the GDELT news event data, geo-relations were divided into conflict and cooperation. We also explored the evolution characteristics, driving factors and laws of the geographical relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries. Firstly, the geo-relations between China and Southeast Asian countries from 1979 to 2019 were divided into time stages by Sequential Cluster Method, then the methods of social network and community exploration and analysis were used to further analyze and interpret the structural relationship between 12 countries. Finally, the Shannon entropy equilibrium degree was used to analyze the bilateral relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries. Four main results are presented: First, the evolution of geo-relations between China and Southeast Asian countries shows the characteristics of stages and steps, which has gone through three stages. The trend of cooperation and conflict in each stage is similar, but the change of conflict is more drastic than that of cooperation. In addition, China's cooperation and conflicts gradually increase with the deepening of Southeast Asian countries' dependence on China's economy. Second, geographically concentrated and adjacent countries are more likely to form the same community. The relationships between the 12 countries are dominated by cooperation, and the scope of cooperation between countries has evolved from within the same community to different communities. In addition, China has gradually become the core of the network, the scope of cooperation between China and other countries has gradually expanded, and individual countries that have disputes with China over the South China Sea issue are more prone to conflicts. Third, in each stage, the bilateral relations between some countries are prominent, and the driving factors of different bilateral relations are also different, but the main problems are the state-to-state relations between China and Vietnam and the South China Sea issue. In addition, economic interests are the booster to promote the evolution of geo-relations. Fourth, in the short term, the South China Sea issue will still lead to local conflicts, but in the long run, the win-win trend of cooperation in the region is more obvious, in which the cooperation between countries with China as the core will cover 11 countries in Southeast Asia.

Key words: geo-relations, evolution, GDELT, Southeast Asia, China

摘要：

基于GDELT将地缘关系分解为冲突与合作两方面，探讨中国与东南亚国家间地缘关系的演变特征、驱动因素和规律。首先采用有序聚类将1979—2019年中国与东南亚国家间地缘关系划分时间阶段，其次利用社会网络和社区探索分析法探究12国的结构关系，最后运用香农熵均衡度计算分析中国与东南亚国家的双边关系。发现：中国及东南亚国家间地缘关系呈现出阶段性且循序渐进的演变过程，经历三个演变阶段，各阶段各国的合作与冲突大体呈相似趋势变动，冲突比合作变动更为剧烈，中国的合作和冲突随着东南亚国家对中国经济依赖程度的加深而增多；地理空间集中且相邻的国家更易组成同一社区，12国的网络关系整体以合作为主，地缘合作联系由同一社区内各国间演变为各个社区间更紧密，中国逐渐成为网络核心，合作范围有所扩大，而冲突集中在与中国有南海争端的个别国家；各阶段突出的双边关系及其驱动因素各异，但中越关系和南海问题是主要矛盾，经济利益是推动地缘关系演进的助推剂；短期内南海问题仍会引发局部冲突，但长期来看合作共赢趋势更明显，以中国为核心的合作范围将涵盖东南亚11国。

关键词: 地缘关系, 演变, GDELT, 东南亚, 中国