Abstract:

This study constructed an economic resilience analysis based on the DPSR model and the adaptive cycle theory, and measured the economic resilience of the five urban agglomerations from 2003 to 2021 using the combined weight model. Subsequently, this study revealed the spatio-temporal evolution of economic resilience in the five urban agglomerations, and identified influencing factors and their spatial spillover effects based on the TOE framework and spatial econometric model. The results show that: ① The overall economic resilience of the five major urban agglomerations increased steadily, but the increase became slower at the end of the study period. The average economic resilience ranked from highest to lowest, is as follows: PRD, YRD, BTH, the overall, MYR, and CC. ② BTH showed a pattern of "dual-core driving, sub-center leading, and strong in the middle and weak in the north and south"; YRD showed the evolution characteristics of "single-core aggregation, dual-core driving, three-legged tripod, single-strength multi-polar development", and the high-value area shows a ">"-shaped structure; PRD showed an "olive-shaped" spatial distribution; MYR showed a three-legged situation centered on Wuhan, Changsha and Nanchang, and the high-resilience area was gradually expanding around the three cities as the center; CC had a dual-core spatial distribution.③ The factors influencing the economic resilience exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. Advanced digital infrastructure, educational expenditure, technological expenditure, and entrepreneurial activity all contribute positively to economic resilience. Traditional infrastructure, technological expenditure, and environmental regulation display positive spatial spillover effects, while advanced digital infrastructure, educational expenditure, and entrepreneurial activity exhibit negative spatial spillover effects. The spatial spillover effects of fiscal support are not significant.

Key words: economic resilience, spatio-temporal characteristics, DPSR model, adaptive circulation theory, urban agglomeration

摘要：

基于城市群视角，构建DPSR模型与适应性循环理论相结合的经济韧性分析框架，运用组合权重模型综合测度五大城市群93个城市2003—2021年的经济韧性水平，揭示五大城市群经济韧性时空演变规律，并基于TOE框架及空间计量模型来识别经济韧性影响因素及其空间溢出效应。结果表明：①五大城市群经济韧性总体稳步提升，但在研究期末增幅变缓，各区域经济韧性均值排序为珠三角>长三角>京津冀>总体>长江中游>成渝。②京津冀呈“主次双核驱动、次中心引领、中强南北弱”的格局；长三角呈现“单核聚集—双核驱动—三足鼎立—单强多极体系化发展”的演变特征，高值区呈“>”形结构；珠三角呈“橄榄”形空间分布；长江中游呈以武汉、长沙及南昌为中心的三足鼎立局面，高韧性区域以三市为中心逐渐向四周蔓延；成渝呈双核分布。③经济韧性影响因素呈现出明显的空间异质性。新型数字基础设施、教育支出、科技支出、创业活跃度对经济韧性具有促进作用；传统基础设施、科技支出、环境规制呈现正向空间溢出效应；新型数字基础设施、教育支出、创业活跃度呈现负向空间溢出效应；财政支持空间溢出效应不显著。

关键词: 经济韧性, 时空特征, DPSR模型, 适应性循环理论, 城市群